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The potential impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on international development: Towards a worst-case scenario?

Published 24 January 2025 in Analysis , News

Updates

  • U.S. Withdrawal from the WHO

On January 20, 2025, inauguration day, the White House issued an executive order initiating the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). The order also halts new funding for the WHO, recalls or reassigns U.S. government personnel seconded to the organization, and pulls the U.S. out of ongoing negotiations on the Pandemic Preparedness and Response Agreement. Until now, the US has been the largest contributor to the WHO, providing $1.284 billion for 2022–2023 period.

  • Climate change

On January 20, 2025, a presidential executive order confirmed the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This withdrawal includes the halting of all financing related to the Paris Agreement and terminating the U.S. International Climate Finance Plan.

  • Minimum Taxation of Multinational Corporations

Through another executive order, the U.S. announced its refusal to recognize the OECD’s Global Minimum Tax Agreement, which ensures that multinational corporations pay at least 15% tax on their income in each jurisdiction.

  • Development Assistance

President Trump issued a 90-day pause in U.S. development assistance to assess its alignment with American interests. The decision, prompted by concerns about the potential negative impact of some aid programs on “American values and global stability”, is intended to evaluate each program to determine whether it should be maintained, modified, or discontinued. Certain exceptions have been included, including military aid for Israel and Egypt, as well as emergency food aid. On January 28, the Secretary of State also signed a waiver for humanitarian assistance programs that provide “core life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance, as well as supplies and reasonable administrative costs as necessary to deliver such assistance”, but excluding any activities related to family planning.

  • USAID reform

USAID (the U.S. Agency for International Development) is preparing to place almost its entire global workforce on leave by the end of the week, according to an official memo dated February 4. This drastic measure follows the executive order on aid and signals a potential plan to dismantle USAID and merge it with the State Department. Trump’s appointees have made sweeping changes, including closing the agency’s headquarters. However, Democrats argue that Trump does not have the authority to make structural changes to USAID without legislative approval. A report from the Congressional Research Service supports this position, stating that any major changes require congressional authorization.

  • Women’s health and rights 

On January 24, the Trump administration reinstated the Global Gag Rule(or Mexico City Policy), denying US aid to organizations involved in abortion access, regardless of local laws or their external funding. American senators have responded by reintroducing the Global Health, Empowerment and Rights (HER) Act, which aims to permanently repeal the Global Gag Rule. This legislation would ensure that foreign NGOs can provide reproductive health services with their own funds, protect their freedom of expression and improve access to care for women worldwide. The senators denounce the policy as a threat to global reproductive health and call for its permanent repeal.

In the United States, the reinstatement of the Hyde Amendment bans the use of public funds for these services. These measures represent a major setback for global health, gender equality and human rights, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. In addition, the Secretary of State announced the immediate reintegration of the United States into the Geneva Consensus Declaration on Promoting Women’s Health and Strengthening the Family. Supported by the previous Trump administration, this initiative aims to weaken the recognition of sexual and reproductive rights as human rights.

  • Fighting HIV/AIDS

The Trump administration’s suspension of aid has brought many health and medical research programs around the world to an abrupt halt, with PEPFAR among the hardest hit, causing supply disruptions in many countries. After several days of uncertainty, a partial exemption was granted to PEPFAR, allowing HIV/AIDS care to continue during the 90-day suspension of aid. This exemption covers treatment, testing, prevention services and supply chains, including prevention of mother-to-child transmission. However, many other activities remain suspended pending the outcome of the US aid review. Despite this breakthrough, PEPFAR’s future remains uncertain, and many programs are still unsure whether they can resume operations 

  • International organizations

Signed on February 4, 2025, a presidential order withdraws the United States from certain United Nations organizations deemed contrary to American interests and accused of promoting anti-American and anti-Semitic ideologies. The decree ends US participation in the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), prohibits future funding of the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), and mandates a 90-day examination of US membership of UNESCO. A review of international organizations receiving U.S. funding will be carried out within 180 days, to identify those deemed harmful to U.S. interests, and to assess a possible withdrawal. These decisions are in line with measures adopted during President Trump’s first term in office, when the US withdrew from UNHRC and UNESCO, and cut funding to UNRWA.

 

 


As Donald Trump begins a second term, the global international development sector is holding its breath, fearing new setbacks in the fight against global poverty and inequality.

During Trump’s previous term in office (2017-2021), his administration initiated actions that have long-term implications for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Most notably, the U.S. reinstated the “Mexico City Policy,” also known as the “Global Gag Rule,” which cuts funding to international organizations that provide abortion-related care or information. Attempts to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, UNESCO, and WHO raised questions about the U.S. commitment to multilateralism - attempts later canceled under Joe Biden.

Among the concerns are potential cuts in US Official development assistance (ODA)-which represents one-third of global ODA-and strategic shifts that could threaten global access to health, human rights, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation efforts. Analysis.

 

 

 

WOMEN’S RIGHTS AND HEALTH AT RISK

If the new administration reinstates policies similar to those of the previous Trump administration, progress on maternal health, women’s rights, and HIV prevention could be set back - both in the U.S. and in numerous developing countries.

The reinstatement and expansion of the Mexico City Policy seems inevitable, potentially depriving millions of women of contraceptives. USAID, the second largest provider of contraceptives used in developing countries, plays a central role in supporting family planning organizations.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which has previously been targeted by the Trump administration, could see its funding cut again. In 2017, Trump slashed its budget by $70 million, which Biden later restored and increased to $160 million in 2023. The U.S. remains the largest donor to UNFPA’s humanitarian efforts.

To offset previous cuts, initiatives such as SheDecides, launched by the Netherlands in 2017, had raised 260 million euros for sexual and reproductive health programs. However, against a backdrop of rising conservative and anti-rights rhetoric, widespread donor budget cuts to official development assistance (ODA) within OECD countries, and the current geopolitical context, it seems unlikely that new funding will compensate for these likely reductions in U.S. financial commitments.

 

 

Find out more about sexual and reproductive health and its funding at the international level.

Diplomatically, the Trump administration could undermine efforts to promote gender equality in multilateral forums such as the G7, the G20, and the UN. It could also seek to rejoin the Geneva Consensus Declaration on Promoting Women’s Health and Strengthening the Family, which it had previously championed. Supported by 36 countries, this declaration opposes abortion and promotes a conservative vision of the family and the rights of LGBT+ people.

In addition, U.S. funds may be redirected to ultra-conservative, faith-based local organizations, with ideological criteria influencing aid distribution. Women’s rights and LGBT+ advocates have expressed concern about the growing influence of anti-rights groups, many of which operate in Africa supported by U.S. funding, threatening decades of progress in gender equality and human rights. 

 

GLOBAL HEALTH IN PERIL

Budget restrictions on sex education and family planning programs could lead to dramatic increases in maternal mortality and the spread of sexually transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDS, in many countries. Expansion of the Global Gag Rule could hamper prevention, screening, and access to essential treatment for HIV-related infections and lead to an increase inunintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions.

ThePresident’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has historically been supported by both Democrats and Republicans, could also be targeted. The previous Trump administration had repeatedly questioned its funding, citing unfounded allegations of abortion-related activities. This misinformation campaign continued, and for the first time, the FY2025 budget renewed funding for one-year, as opposed to the usual five.

Cuts to global health initiatives could also jeopardize progress on pandemic preparedness efforts. At a time when negotiations are underway, U.S. opposition could stall the adoption of the new Pandemic Accord. In addition, influential figures likely to join the Trump administration have regularly spread misinformation about vaccines and pandemics, undermining the adoption of science-based public policies.

In 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States suspended its funding of the WHO, citing mismanagement and undue Chinese influence. Although a withdrawal process from the organization had been initiated, it was abandoned by the Biden administration in 2021. This process could be resumed by D. Trump, according to his close associates. As the largest government contributor to the WHO budget (approximately $700 million for the period 2020-2021, 65% of which is in the form of voluntary contributions), such a withdrawal would have major consequences. When Trump previously suspended funding, Germany temporarily filled the gapby increasing its contributions from $360 million to $1.26 billion—a move unlikely to be replicated in today’s fiscal climate with general budget contraction observed in many donor countries, particularly in Europe.

 

CLIMATE CHANGE : “DRILL, BABY, DRILL”

Trump’s re-election, as a well-known climate change skeptic, raises fears of renewed U.S. disengagement from domestic and international climate initiatives. Such a dynamic could lead to the cancellation of existing projects or policies, the deregulation of environmental laws, or a withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. His prior term saw the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (later reversed by Biden), promote fossil fuel extraction (including in protected areas), and weaken environmental regulations. A return to such policies could derail international climate goals and cooperation efforts to combat global warming.

 

UNDERFUNDED HUMANITARIAN RESPONSES

The 2025 Global Humanitarian Overviewreports unprecedented humanitarian needs : $47 billion is required to assist 190 million people across 72 countries. A potential reduction in U.S. humanitarian aid—the world’s largest donor—raises concerns among humanitarian organizations.

From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. provided over $54 billion in humanitarian aid, significantly supporting major agencies like the World Food Programme (WFP), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the World Health Organization (WHO). Cuts reminiscent of Trump’s first term, which slashed funding for key UN agencies, spark fears of resource gaps in critical humanitarian programs.

 

THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

In 2023, the U.S. was the top donor for food security efforts, contributing $4.2 billion—almost four times that of Germany, the second-largest donor. U.S. contributions accounted for 44% of total global food security assistance and 48% of nutrition assistance.

With the Nutrition for Growth Summit scheduled for March 27–28 in Paris to mobilize the international community against malnutrition, the United States’ commitment will be closely scrutinized amid concerns about possible funding reductions.

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Many questions remain unanswered, from the calling into question of existing national borders (e.g., Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal) and the international order (e.g., the UN, G7, G20) to the sudden increase in tariffs, likely to spark a global trade war from which no region of the world, including Africa, will emerge a winner, the redefinition of the international financial architecture (World Bank, IMF), the resolution of conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan) and the potential expulsion of millions of undocumented immigrants on American soil.

 

 

 

This article will be regularly updated as new information and statements become available.

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